Mark Johnston

Although Mark Johnston has a really big stable of over 200 horses he is not renowned for having too many sprinting stars and most of his success over the years has been built up through his middle and long-distance runners. In addition, he gets plenty of 2 year old and 3 year old maiden and stakes winners and some of these horses end up contesting the best Group races. So there is some quality as well as quantity but it’s a little in short supply in the races that I specialise in. Having said this when a Mark Johnston horse does appear in one of my races it should not be discounted without careful inspection.

From a course point of view have a good look at the Johnston runners at Southwell. He has made a level stake profit at the course in each of the last 4 years. He already has 17 winners at the course this year, of which 5 have been in races in my distance range of 5 to 7 furlongs. From a betting point of view if you had put a £1 on each of these runners you would have made a £25.11 profit.

A second angle that is profitable, especially amongst the sprinters, is when they are dropped in grade. He is not proud when it comes to placing his charges and is quick to pick up small prizes when a horse has been found wanting at a higher level. The Johnston horses always come to the racecourse fit and ready to run for their lives, so pay special attention when one of his horses seems to be downgraded.

Also, watch out for Johnston 3-year-olds when they compete in all-age handicaps. He seems quick to target these races in summer at the first possible opportunity. At this stage the handicapper often hasn’t a grip on unexposed 3-year-olds and the trainer seems adept at exposing this fact. Crimea and Elusive Fame beat older horses as early as July this year.

As far as jockeys are concerned Johnston has several very competent riders at his disposal and the likes of Fanning, Fairley, Ffrench and Guillambert can all be replied upon.

Two to look out for this Winter are Nightjar who won 4 out of 4 at Southwell last Winter and the 4-year-old Naomh Geileis who won well at the same course early in November, has disappointed since, but is still well handicapped, some 30 lbs lower than the beginning of the year and looks sure to win again at some stage.

So, not a trainer whose horses I will have too many opportunities with, but one who I definitely like when they do appear.

Alan McCabe

Alan McCabe has survived a mid-year move of stables and a couple of months when he didn’t have a runner. In the process he lost several of his best horses as his chief patron and owner of the Haygarth House stables Paul Dixon, brought in Jeremy Glover to take over being in charge. Alan though is now settled into his smart new stables at Averham Park and there are the first signs of better things to come.

14 out of 19 sprint winners so far this year have been achieved on the all-weather and that’s about the same proportion as the stable as a whole since it started in August 2006. The McCabe horses are mainly low grade and obviously get more wins in weaker races of which there are a higher number on the all-weather.

McCabe gets more wins at Southwell, Wolverhampton and Lingfield than Kempton. So far this year the stable has had 4 winners at each of the first three named and just 2 at the latter. Turf wins seem to be scattered around the northern courses with Thirsk and Catterick having the best strike rate while Doncaster has the most winners numerically but a slightly lower winning percentage.

As far as jockeys, Robert Winston has been the most successful jockey for the stable having ridden 18 out of the 33 winners so far this year which includes 11 of the 19 sprint winners. In spite of being a stable which has produced a hefty level stake loss this year, Winston has managed to make an impressive £45.75 level stake profit from a £1 unit.

2008 saw many more winners in the first half of the year (29) compared to the second (13) and it is undoubtedly going to be the same trend this year. At the time of writing (mid-November) there had been 30 winners up to the end of June and only 3 since. Obviously the move of stables hasn’t helped in this regard, with no runners for a couple of months in the middle of the year, but many of the stable’s horses now looked well handicapped and I can see there being plenty of winners in the next four months or so till the end of the all-weather season.

Strike rate and numerically McCabe has always done best with his sprinters and names of horses which should be followed in this department are Fratellino, Tamasou, Cornus, Loose Caboose, Rosie Says No and Fol Liam.

Kevin Ryan

Kevin Ryan’s stable is a big one of over 100 horses. It is not the easiest stable to find winners but increasingly the stable stars are sprinters and there are angles that can be used to over come the low strike rate.

2009 has been a slightly inconsistent one for the stable. The most obvious trend is a decline in fortunes as the year has progressed. 34 sprint wins were recorded by me from January to June and then only 9 wins over the next 4+ months. These results reflect the fortunes of the stable as a whole and it seems as if the stable performs better on the all-weather and before the bigger stables get going in the turf season.

Kevin Ryan seems happy to drop his horses into low grade races to gain success. Watch out for horses like Mutamared, Harry Up and Grimes Faith who have gained 13 wins between them on the all-weather (4,5 and 4 respectively). On the other hand, be wary of his handicappers when they are raised in class. In particular most of his forays south seem to be disappointing and his strike rates at the premier courses Ascot, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket and Sandown are all less than 7%. A rare exception of a win in the south was achieved by Advanced in the Totesport.com Handicap at Ascot on 26^th September. Not surprisingly, considering the stable’s lack of success down south, Advanced was allowed to start at the lucrative price of 33-1.

As far as courses are concerned Ryan seems to have winners fairly evenly spread round the all-weather tracks and does the best on the turf at the lower prestige meetings in the North.

In spite of achieving 21 out of the 43 wins so far this year on the all-weather, Ryan has still managed to achieve 2 spectacular trebles of sprint wins on one day on 27^th June and 26^th September. These two days seemed to come out of the blue, so further multiple successes on the same day are not probably a phenomena that we can rely on happening too often. Numerically, January (8) and June (7) were the two months with most winners.

Sprint wins on the all-weather this year are evenly spread between Southwell (7 wins), Wolverhampton (6 wins) and Lingfield (7 wins). Kempton has been the least successful of the four all-weather courses over the last five years. Historically, Southwell has had most winners during the same time and Lingfield has had the best strike rate.

With regard to jockeys pay most attention in sprints to Neil Callan (14 wins), Jamie Spencer (8 wins) and the trainer’s daughter Amy (10 wins) who changed from amateur to apprentice status at the beginning of the year. Jamie was the jockey to follow for the stable in January (5 wins) and Neil from 1^st February to 30^th June (13 wins). 19-year-old Amy still claims 5 lbs but is becoming a stronger jockey with experience. At the beginning of the year other jockeys were winning on horses and then Amy was losing on them when she took over. This has not been the case since June though and in fact as the winners have seemed to dry up for the stable her strike rate has started to improve. She has picked up 3 of the 9 sprint wins to date in the second half of the year, including the big win of Advanced at Ascot.

So, what of the near future? Well, Kevin looks as if he could do well on the all-weather this Winter.

In Arganil he has a top all-weather performer with 5 wins out of 5 on the all-weather to date. Opportunities may be restricted now due to his prohibitive handicap mark but wherever he appears on an artificial surface he should be supported. It would be no surprise to see Arganil targetted abroad, perhaps in America or Dubai.

Others to look out for are Peak District, Le Toreador and Green Manalishi. All three have now done well on the all-weather.

Peak District’s form figures on the all-weather are now 3,2,1 and the latter was a particularly impressive win at Lingfield over the minimum distance. He has only had 5 runs on turf this Summer so will be relatively fresh for the Autumn/Winter.

Le Toreador has done tremendously well for the stable this Summer winning 4 times, the latest success being at Wolverhampton making his record on sand as 2 wins from 3.

Finally, the 8-year-old Green Manalishi has been a decent handicapper for the stable for several years now. He gained his second success on the Lingfield polytrack at the beginning of this month and like Arganil is very much an above average performer on this surface.

As mentioned above Ryan has plenty of firepower, albeit some of it quite moderate. Having said this the trainer has shown a special knack to get the most out of certain animals dropped into claimers and sellers, so I will be keeping a close eye on those that are, over the next few months.