Bryan Smart

North Yorkshire trainer, Bryan Smart, doesn’t look as if he is going to beat his best ever winner total in a year (2008 – 57, 2009 to date – 50). Having said this the trainer has had another highly respectable year and is still one to follow, albeit on a selective basis.

Numerically, sprint winners are always more prolific than at other distances for the stable. However, they have only come at a strike rate ranging from 11% to 17% over the last 4 years, which would have given a big level stake loss, so blanket betting on all stable runners is definitely not recommended.

With regard to courses, Musselburgh is the course to look out for on the turf – 21% strike rate over the last 5 seasons producing a £93 profit to a £1 level stake unit. On the all-weather it’s Lingfield which has the best strike rate but Southwell and Wolverhampton have more winners numerically.

From a month point of view watch out for plenty of winners in January and May.

Numerically, stable jockey, 28-year-old, Tom Eaves takes most rides for the stable and not surprisingly gets most winners. A very strong jockey in a finish, it is no surprise that sprint distances give him most winners and at the best strike rate. Of the lesser used jockeys watch out for Richard Mullen and Greg Fairley.

Bryan Smart is very good at getting multiple wins out of his best horses and this year has been no exception with Nickel Silver (4 wins), Captain Macarry (5 wins) and Tangerine Tree (3 wins) all being very well placed. Looking forward to 2010 names to follow are the flying grey Nickel Silver (pictured above), the classy Excellent Show, the well-handicapped Chosen One and the potential improver Striker Torres.

Bill Ratcliffe

Bill Ratcliffe has been a licensed trainer since 2006 and has impressed me immensely with the limited material he has had so far. Looking at his excellent website www.billratclifferacing.co.uk and reading the informative blog you get the distinct impression that this could be an establishment that is going to make waves in spite of difficult recessionary times. Certainly it’s not easy making progress with so few horses and the move to new premises in Newmarket from North Yorkshire at the beginning of the year could be a make or break move. First indications though are that things are still moving in the right direction, results have improved further from his smart new stable and recent investments in yearlings will hopefully start to cement the trainer’s future.

Bill admits on his website that if it hadn’t been for early success with Bel Cantor, still a stable favourite at the age of 6 and with 10 wins to his name, things may be different now. Small stables are often very dependent on there being a star performer for their survival.

This year 11 out of 14 wins for the trainer have been achieved in sprint races I follow. The 4 horses that have come up with the 11 wins are all individuals that have been around for some time, so the trainer’s ability to keep his mainstays in tip-top form and placing to advantage is without question. Guto and Colorus, both 6-year-olds, have excelled with 4 wins apiece, Bel Cantor continues in rude health with another 2 wins this year and the two year younger Style Award, only one win, could be the best handicapped inmate if the trainer can only get to the bottom of her undoubted potential.

Of course wins for older handicappers like this does make things more difficult though. Guto and Colorus currently have higher official ratings than they have ever had, and at the age of 6 you can’t expect too much further improvement. The quest for young talent is absolutely vital.

In each of the last 4 years Bill has managed to increase his winners total – 2006 (3), 2007 (5), 2008 (10), 2009 (14 wins to date). 28 out of 32 winners have been achieved in sprints. Numerically, Southwell has been the most successful course with 7 wins since he started, including 5 this year. Pontefract has been the most successful turf course with 5 wins from 16 runners.

As far as jockeys are concerned success is unusual in that it is very much centred round the use of apprentices at present. All 11 sprint wins this year have been achieved with apprentices abroad. Up and coming Paul Pickard has been the star man this year having ridden 6 of the winners. The very able Kelly Harrison has had 3 wins but from more rides, Martin Lane and Josephine Bruning have had 1 each.

What’s obvious is that in races where noses and short heads can make all the difference Bill Ratcliffe sees the weight allowances of apprentices as being most important.

There’s no definite trend yet as far as best time of the year to follow the yard but it should be noted that the trainer is yet to get a winner in December and January. Apart from these two months winners seem to come at regular intervals and the impression is that runners have a consistency of form even when not winning. The difference between winning and losing seems more to do with handicap marks and right conditions.

So, only a small set-up this but very much a trainer who specialises in sprinters. He has shown enough since starting in 2006 to be of continuing interest and I expect him to have another good year in 2010.

Mark Johnston

Although Mark Johnston has a really big stable of over 200 horses he is not renowned for having too many sprinting stars and most of his success over the years has been built up through his middle and long-distance runners. In addition, he gets plenty of 2 year old and 3 year old maiden and stakes winners and some of these horses end up contesting the best Group races. So there is some quality as well as quantity but it’s a little in short supply in the races that I specialise in. Having said this when a Mark Johnston horse does appear in one of my races it should not be discounted without careful inspection.

From a course point of view have a good look at the Johnston runners at Southwell. He has made a level stake profit at the course in each of the last 4 years. He already has 17 winners at the course this year, of which 5 have been in races in my distance range of 5 to 7 furlongs. From a betting point of view if you had put a £1 on each of these runners you would have made a £25.11 profit.

A second angle that is profitable, especially amongst the sprinters, is when they are dropped in grade. He is not proud when it comes to placing his charges and is quick to pick up small prizes when a horse has been found wanting at a higher level. The Johnston horses always come to the racecourse fit and ready to run for their lives, so pay special attention when one of his horses seems to be downgraded.

Also, watch out for Johnston 3-year-olds when they compete in all-age handicaps. He seems quick to target these races in summer at the first possible opportunity. At this stage the handicapper often hasn’t a grip on unexposed 3-year-olds and the trainer seems adept at exposing this fact. Crimea and Elusive Fame beat older horses as early as July this year.

As far as jockeys are concerned Johnston has several very competent riders at his disposal and the likes of Fanning, Fairley, Ffrench and Guillambert can all be replied upon.

Two to look out for this Winter are Nightjar who won 4 out of 4 at Southwell last Winter and the 4-year-old Naomh Geileis who won well at the same course early in November, has disappointed since, but is still well handicapped, some 30 lbs lower than the beginning of the year and looks sure to win again at some stage.

So, not a trainer whose horses I will have too many opportunities with, but one who I definitely like when they do appear.

Alan McCabe

Alan McCabe has survived a mid-year move of stables and a couple of months when he didn’t have a runner. In the process he lost several of his best horses as his chief patron and owner of the Haygarth House stables Paul Dixon, brought in Jeremy Glover to take over being in charge. Alan though is now settled into his smart new stables at Averham Park and there are the first signs of better things to come.

14 out of 19 sprint winners so far this year have been achieved on the all-weather and that’s about the same proportion as the stable as a whole since it started in August 2006. The McCabe horses are mainly low grade and obviously get more wins in weaker races of which there are a higher number on the all-weather.

McCabe gets more wins at Southwell, Wolverhampton and Lingfield than Kempton. So far this year the stable has had 4 winners at each of the first three named and just 2 at the latter. Turf wins seem to be scattered around the northern courses with Thirsk and Catterick having the best strike rate while Doncaster has the most winners numerically but a slightly lower winning percentage.

As far as jockeys, Robert Winston has been the most successful jockey for the stable having ridden 18 out of the 33 winners so far this year which includes 11 of the 19 sprint winners. In spite of being a stable which has produced a hefty level stake loss this year, Winston has managed to make an impressive £45.75 level stake profit from a £1 unit.

2008 saw many more winners in the first half of the year (29) compared to the second (13) and it is undoubtedly going to be the same trend this year. At the time of writing (mid-November) there had been 30 winners up to the end of June and only 3 since. Obviously the move of stables hasn’t helped in this regard, with no runners for a couple of months in the middle of the year, but many of the stable’s horses now looked well handicapped and I can see there being plenty of winners in the next four months or so till the end of the all-weather season.

Strike rate and numerically McCabe has always done best with his sprinters and names of horses which should be followed in this department are Fratellino, Tamasou, Cornus, Loose Caboose, Rosie Says No and Fol Liam.

Kevin Ryan

Kevin Ryan’s stable is a big one of over 100 horses. It is not the easiest stable to find winners but increasingly the stable stars are sprinters and there are angles that can be used to over come the low strike rate.

2009 has been a slightly inconsistent one for the stable. The most obvious trend is a decline in fortunes as the year has progressed. 34 sprint wins were recorded by me from January to June and then only 9 wins over the next 4+ months. These results reflect the fortunes of the stable as a whole and it seems as if the stable performs better on the all-weather and before the bigger stables get going in the turf season.

Kevin Ryan seems happy to drop his horses into low grade races to gain success. Watch out for horses like Mutamared, Harry Up and Grimes Faith who have gained 13 wins between them on the all-weather (4,5 and 4 respectively). On the other hand, be wary of his handicappers when they are raised in class. In particular most of his forays south seem to be disappointing and his strike rates at the premier courses Ascot, Epsom, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket and Sandown are all less than 7%. A rare exception of a win in the south was achieved by Advanced in the Totesport.com Handicap at Ascot on 26^th September. Not surprisingly, considering the stable’s lack of success down south, Advanced was allowed to start at the lucrative price of 33-1.

As far as courses are concerned Ryan seems to have winners fairly evenly spread round the all-weather tracks and does the best on the turf at the lower prestige meetings in the North.

In spite of achieving 21 out of the 43 wins so far this year on the all-weather, Ryan has still managed to achieve 2 spectacular trebles of sprint wins on one day on 27^th June and 26^th September. These two days seemed to come out of the blue, so further multiple successes on the same day are not probably a phenomena that we can rely on happening too often. Numerically, January (8) and June (7) were the two months with most winners.

Sprint wins on the all-weather this year are evenly spread between Southwell (7 wins), Wolverhampton (6 wins) and Lingfield (7 wins). Kempton has been the least successful of the four all-weather courses over the last five years. Historically, Southwell has had most winners during the same time and Lingfield has had the best strike rate.

With regard to jockeys pay most attention in sprints to Neil Callan (14 wins), Jamie Spencer (8 wins) and the trainer’s daughter Amy (10 wins) who changed from amateur to apprentice status at the beginning of the year. Jamie was the jockey to follow for the stable in January (5 wins) and Neil from 1^st February to 30^th June (13 wins). 19-year-old Amy still claims 5 lbs but is becoming a stronger jockey with experience. At the beginning of the year other jockeys were winning on horses and then Amy was losing on them when she took over. This has not been the case since June though and in fact as the winners have seemed to dry up for the stable her strike rate has started to improve. She has picked up 3 of the 9 sprint wins to date in the second half of the year, including the big win of Advanced at Ascot.

So, what of the near future? Well, Kevin looks as if he could do well on the all-weather this Winter.

In Arganil he has a top all-weather performer with 5 wins out of 5 on the all-weather to date. Opportunities may be restricted now due to his prohibitive handicap mark but wherever he appears on an artificial surface he should be supported. It would be no surprise to see Arganil targetted abroad, perhaps in America or Dubai.

Others to look out for are Peak District, Le Toreador and Green Manalishi. All three have now done well on the all-weather.

Peak District’s form figures on the all-weather are now 3,2,1 and the latter was a particularly impressive win at Lingfield over the minimum distance. He has only had 5 runs on turf this Summer so will be relatively fresh for the Autumn/Winter.

Le Toreador has done tremendously well for the stable this Summer winning 4 times, the latest success being at Wolverhampton making his record on sand as 2 wins from 3.

Finally, the 8-year-old Green Manalishi has been a decent handicapper for the stable for several years now. He gained his second success on the Lingfield polytrack at the beginning of this month and like Arganil is very much an above average performer on this surface.

As mentioned above Ryan has plenty of firepower, albeit some of it quite moderate. Having said this the trainer has shown a special knack to get the most out of certain animals dropped into claimers and sellers, so I will be keeping a close eye on those that are, over the next few months.

Derek Shaw

Derek Shaw has had 17 winners so far this year and this is a big disappointment as the previous 2 years he has had 51 and 45 successes. Very little chance of him reaching those totals then but expect him to improve on his present tally over the coming months. Most of his handicappers have dropped to attractive marks and look ready to strike soon.

Shaw’s best period for winners is usually the winter months. January and February 2009 (9 winners) were better than November and December 2008 (2 winners) but the next 4 months wont necessarily repeat that trend. Previous years have shown winners to be evenly spread over the 4 winter months and the trainer will no doubt be very keen to turn round things soon as he is now on a losing run of over 60 runners.

Thirteen of Shaw’s winners this year have come on the all-weather (3 Kempton, 10 Wolverhampton) and expect this trend to continue but probably more evenly over the 4 all-weather courses. 77 out of the 96 winners in 2007 – 2008 were achieved on the artificial surfaces of Lingfield, Kempton, Southwell and Wolverhampton.

What we can be sure of is if Shaw gets his name back on the score sheet it will be with sprint winners. All the 17 winners so far this year have been between the distances 5f – 7f.

As far as jockeys are concerned Darren Williams had only one winner from 50 runners in the first five months of the year. Darren is waiting to hear from the BHA whether his ban can be lifted and from a statistical point of view it may be better that it isn’t. He only managed one winner when the stable was going quite well and before the recent slump arrived!

Currently the jockeys to look out for are probably Paul Hanagan (2009 – 3 wins), Luke Morris (2009 – 2 wins) and Graham Gibbons (2009 – 2 wins). Adam Kirby and Dane O’Neil have done well in previous years but both have only achieved one winner apiece in 2009, Kirby from 15 attempts and O’Neil from 12. Martin Lane has an even worse record with one win from 26 attempts on turf but this is an apprentice with an exciting future and if Shaw keeps faith with him expect much better results this Winter.

The trainer should also be considered when he has runners in amateur races on the all weather. He has already had two winners in such races, both achieved at Wolverhampton, ridden by Mr Ben Hamilton and Mrs Margaret Morris.

Shaw has had 3 seconds and a third in 11 races over the last 14 days. He is getting closer and better times could be just round the corner!

Smart Oss tipped a 9-1 winner Tourist trained by Derek Shaw on Saturday, 31st October, see www.tipexchange.co.uk.

Dandy Nicholls

Dandy Nicholls is very much a trainer to be interested in when it comes to follow sprint racehorses. He is known as “king of the sprinters” and his stable has very few horses that run over more than a mile. 2009 has done nothing to harm his reputation from the punter point of view, although his position as top sprint trainer is very much under threat from Richard Fahey. His biggest winner of the year was Regal Parade who won the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Hayydock, but unlike Fahey he failed to pick up the top sprint handicaps, which will no doubt have caused some frustration.

So far this year Dandy Nicholls has had 44 sprint winners recorded by me and these have been achieved by 27 different horses. If you take away Blue Tomato’s five wins (four in claimers/sellers) you can see Dandy’s repeat winners are a little low on the ground. It does mean though that many of the horses continue potentially well handicapped and providing the trainer can find the right opportunity they are well capable of winning again. Nicholls seems very adept at winning the biggest prizes available with the talent he is given, so there will be some unsuccessful forays in races beyond his horses’ abilities.

Nicholls has had a typical 2009 with a slow start to the year (he prefers turf!), things started to take off from mid-March onwards peaking in mid-Summer and then slightly tailing off as Autumn approached. It’s worth looking out for the stable’s purple patches. He had two particular ones this year; 4 winners between March 20 – March 24 and then an astonishing 10 winners between July 11 – July 22.

As far as jockeys are concerned, son Adrian is the one to be most interested in with 22 winners so far this year. He continues to improve and is a particularly strong jockey for those horses who like to try and make all. Adrian is ably assisted by Francis Norton (5 wins) and Silvestre De Sousa (3 wins).

Nicholls has had a few Southern winners as he likes to target all decent sprint handicaps, but it has to be said that historically he is most dangerous winning races on the Northen circuit. 2009 has been typical and his most profitable courses have again been Beverley (5 wins), Hamilton (4 wins), York (3 wins), Catterick (3 wins) and Musselburgh (2 wins).

A lot of the stable’s handicappers have run respectably but unsuccessfully in the big sprint handicaps this Autumn. As a result a lot of them have dropped down the handicap a few lbs. If they don’t manage to win again before the end of the 2009 turf season we can rest assured that they will be starting the 2010 campaign in the same vein as this year. Very much a sprint stable to continue to follow!

Smart Oss tipped a Dandy Nicholls 10-1 winner Mujaadel on Saturday, 17^th October on tipexchange.co.uk.